Bad Night for Big Data

I have a nightmarish pet scenario that as we as a society gain non-stop access to ever-increasing data, there is a risk that we actually get progressively dumber — as we lose the ability to process and analysis that data sufficiently.

My idea got a workout this week during election night when the polling industry, most of whom had predicted a single or even double percentage point Clinton victory, got it monumentally wrong.

When we hear on TV every ten minutes about how Watson is curing cancer, among other breathless hype about Big Data, an error of this stunning magnitude seems at first paradoxical.

But the more you think about it, the more it makes a perverse kind of sense.

“Dewey Defeats Truman”

Embarrassing election errors are nothing new — witness the iconic photo of President-elect Truman gleefully displaying the newspaper headline “Dewey Defeats Truman” the day after the 1948 election.dewey-defeats-truman

People claimed then that the error was due to a combination of slow reporting and the print-era need to prepare headlines hours in advance of publication.

What IS new is that polls are now easier and cheaper to field, and as a natural consequence there is a proliferation of them. And, as they are invariably deemed newsworthy, they feed the hungry news-cycle monster. They generate eyeballs and click-bait — and they’re fun, especially when your own pick is ahead.

Especially toward the close of this 18-month campaign, it seemed like a new poll was appearing every other day. We became so collectively absorbed in the twitching poll dashboards that we neglected the fleeting opportunity to discuss in any depth the serious challenges facing our country and our society.

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